Potential reverse mortgage storms are whipping up all over the country. To keep this in meteorological argot, I would suggest that there are reverse mortgage storm watches one must keep their eye on. We don’t know which path the incipient fronts will take, or whether the storms will ever materialize. Yet the possibility remains that a lot of damage can be done.
Many months ago, I was unsettled by the first irreconcilable rate increase. The dye was cast when the margins were first increased. Today, the industry is faced with a unilateral shift in focus. Like it or not, the reverse mortgage program is not as concerned with helping seniors as it once was. At some point, the industry shift in focus is now subsumed with secondary market concerns.
It may very well be argued that this shift is necessary to keep the program alive. However, another argument can be made that this shift could imperil the program when it is needed the most. The increase in the margins could not be happening at a worse time. Fannie, trying to entice other investors to take notice, has been increasing the margins on the HECM program. It seems to me that while housing values continue to decline, investors will not have the confidence to invest in reverse mortgage paper. Accordingly, increasing these margins now would seem to serve little purpose.
Having said that, the Housing & Economic Recovery Act mandates that Fannie Mae’s portfolio decrease. Hoping that investors will see the merits of investing in the program is a miscalculation at best. It reminds me of the times the weatherperson states that it will be a beautiful day. As one looks out the window it is pouring rain.
Another important and symbiotic issue is the rising indices. A along with the rising margins, higher indices will mean that it is more likely than not, that little or no equity will be left in the home. This is a significant hundred and eighty degree difference. Therefore, originators, while they can’t foretell the future, must nevertheless be reasonable in their forecasting on this point.
There is also the looming probability that the benefit amounts will be decreased as HUD wrestles with the incessant & ubiquitous declining value issue. Is there something government can do to eliminate the need to decrease the benefits realized under this program? It seems that government has a predisposition to helping businesses rather than helping individuals. So it would appear that this answer is no.
Taken together, the rising indices with higher margins, and higher MIP amounts and lower benefit limits may ignite a Katrina style disaster. Many in this industry are voicing this type of concern. There is a palpable fear that these moves could wipe out an entire industry. I think this is a bit dramatic. Yes ,there will be challenges.
Sadly, “good people” are now considering leaving the industry. They profess to see the handwriting on the wall. I think this kind of thinking is premature. The tug of war between providing for the needs of our elders and facilitating the program in the secondary market has begun. Currently, it looks like the secondary market folks are winning. If the words in the National Housing Act mean anything, the program will continue to provide the solace that our elders need. If the words are ignored, then Washington and the industry will have failed our elders.
Let’s not forget that 12 U.S.C. §1715z-20(a) states that the purpose of the reverse mortgage program is to meet the special needs of elderly homeowners by reducing the effect of the economic hardship caused by the increasing costs of meeting health, housing, and subsistence needs at a time of reduced income, through the insurance of home equity conversion mortgages to permit the conversion of a portion of accumulated home equity into liquid assets;
At a time when seniors need the money the most; when media reporting has never been more favorable; HUD is considering (as it appears that it must) increasing the MIP (Mortgage Insurance Premium) in conjunction with lowering the principal limit factor. This means that the benefits that one can receive could be substantially less than they are today.
While many are resigned to this eventuality, I believe that the reduction in benefits could be modest with additional and appropriate government support. While HUD is already requesting about $800 million to cover current short falls under the HECM program, the cuts in benefits if draconian, could violate the spirit of the National Housing Act. Therefore, modest cuts would seem appropriate. It is critical that seniors continue to have confidence in the program, while viewing it as fair.
Declining home values is a serious problem. The resulting reduction in HECM benefits will not, in my opinion spell the demise of the industry. Rather, it will cause confusion and concern that will lower the volume of closed loans. The HECM for purchase and the eventual implementation of HECM co-op loans, may not be enough to sustain the program at current levels. However, even with (substantially) lower benefit amounts, the need to monetize equity during troubled economic times will remain.
Our politicians must dispense with high sounding political speeches and come to the aid of the HECM program in a meaningful way. One way is to cover the expected losses due to the steep decline of home prices. Another way is to continue to temporarily subsidize the program so that reasonable benefit amounts can be realized.
We must heed the words contained in the National Housing Act. But for this program, thousands more would be counting on the government for direct assistance. Too many of our elders have been hit by the financial storms of life. The HECM program can provide protection from these storms.