I received an email that listed 10 individual predictions or statements that were then followed by an unimaginable event. These 10 predictions with the ultimate outcomes are included herein. This got me thinking about the reverse mortgage industry. Using the same format, I posit what a similar prediction/unthinkable outcome would look like. For didactic effect, I have inserted a recent statement made by Peter Bell, the president of NRMLA and the “voice” of this great industry. I have also inserted a heretofore unimaginable FICTITOUS event after that statement. (Peter Bell’s remarks (Jan 8th press release) and the made up outcome are in red as prediction #11). I have been asked many times how I see the future of this industry. It is as bright as ever. With the elimination of over 20 trillion dollars in asset value, seniors have fewer options. Their children, who were spending over 2 billion dollars a month to help, can no longer assist. NRMLA has hit the ground running preparing the new HUD administration for some of the salient issues that will need to be confronted. The above notwithstanding, many people in this industry are wondering whether we are at the beginning stages of a “funding contagion” that could cause serious trouble. This format provides a powerful way to place this issue front and center. 1. "A very powerful and durable rally is in the works. But it may need another couple of days to lift off. Hold the fort and keep the faith!" -- Richard Band, editor, Profitable Investing Letter, Mar. 27, 2008 2. AIG (NYSE:AIG - News) "could have huge gains in the second quarter." -- Bijan Moazami, analyst, Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, May 9, 2008 3. "I think this is a case where Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE - News) and Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - News) are fundamentally sound. They're not in danger of going under. I think they are in good shape going forward." -- Barney Frank (D-Mass.), House Financial Services Committee chairman, July 14, 2008 4. "The market is in the process of correcting itself." -- President George W. Bush, in a Mar. 14, 2008 speech 5. "No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble." -- Jim Cramer, CNBC commentator, Mar. 11, 2008 6. "Existing-Home Sales to Trend Up in 2008" -- Headline of a National Association of Realtors press release, Dec. 9, 2007 7. "I think you'll see (oil prices at) $150 a barrel by the end of the year" -- T. Boone Pickens, June 20, 2008 8. "I expect there will be some failures. I don't anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system." -- Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, Feb. 28, 2008 9. "In today's regulatory environment, it's virtually impossible to violate rules." -- Bernard Madoff, money manager, Oct. 20, 2007 10. A Bound Man: Why We Are Excited About Obama and Why He Can't Win, the title of a book by conservative commentator Shelby Steele, published on Dec. 4, 2007. 11. “The strong growth we’re seeing suggests the HECM program remains a strong and viable option for America’s seniors as they develop their financial plans for retirement …As more seniors try to figure out how to cope with today’s economic conditions, the HECM program takes on increased significance,” said Peter Bell, President of NRMLA. (The following statement is used for didactic purposes only). The reverse mortgage program has been discontinued because FNMA has decided it can no longer purchase this paper. (Remember this statement is made up and untrue). Questions: Could you imagine this happening? While NRMLA’s Peter Bell and staff have been hard at work briefing the transition team and preparing to work with new HUD Secretary Donovan, could a “black swan” event like the above happen? Is it not incredibly scary having one investment source for the entire industry…a source that is in receivership? While the answer to this query is that FNMA has except for a brief period of time been the “funding source”, can its current proscriptions keep pace with the expected growth of this industry? Or to phrase it differently, what would occur if FNMA no longer was able to purchase this paper? Can there even be contingency plans for such an eventuality given the current economic/monetary environment?
At the time of the prediction, the Dow Jones industrial average was at 12,300. By late December it was at 8,500.
AIG wound up losing $5 billion in that quarter and $25 billion in the next. It was taken over in September by the U.S. Government, which will spend or lend $150 billion to keep it afloat.
Two months later, the government forced the mortgage giants into conservatorships and pledged to invest up to $100 billion in each.
For the rest of the year, the market kept correcting and correcting and correcting.
Five days later, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM - News) took over Bear Stearns with government help, nearly wiping out shareholders.
On Dec. 23, 2008, the group said November sales were running at an annual rate of 4.5 million -- down 11% from a year earlier -- in the worst housing slump since the Depression.
Oil was then around $135 a barrel. By late December it was below $40.
In September, Washington Mutual became the largest financial institution in U.S. history to fail. Citigroup (NYSE:C - News) needed an even bigger rescue in November.
About a year later, Madoff -- who once headed the Nasdaq Stock Market -- told investigators he had cost his investors $50 billion in an alleged Ponzi scheme.
Mr. Steele, meet President Barack Obama.