The rubric coming out of Washington D.C. and out of the media paints with an ultra broad brush. I suppose when the paint dries and some of the layers are peeled away, the fine print will astound us all. And it will not matter which side of the bailout debate you are on.
This much I know-The bailout must achieve 3 things:
1. Take bad assets off the banks’ books. Banks need to get back into the lending business.
2. Inject liquidity into the system. Lending will help reverse declining real estate markets.
3. Minimize the effect this bailout will have on taxpayers and on seniors. This will not be the last economic crisis they will face.
It seems to me that each of these points is interrelated and each must happen. While the “mortgage crisis”, along with its concomitant drag on the economy is the focal point, there are other areas that can also implode.
Companies in the automobile industry are already first in line for their bailout. Then there is the credit card folks (writing an inane bankruptcy laws was not enough); and the student loan folks; and those lenders that provide personal and commercial loans. Wait…..aren’t these loans usually given by banks? Banks are behaving like the spendthrift child that keeps coming back to the wealthy parent (government) for help. The government had to intercede in the savings and loan debacle in the ‘80s and also helped saved Citibank (now Citigroup) from ruin as well. Will the parent ever learn to say "No"?
Even the venerable reverse mortgage industry has been affected by this fallout. While interest rates on the HECM loans (FHA –insured reverse mortgage program) are still relatively low, they were even lower before the lending crisis. However, the proprietary programs have been decimated. Yet it is a good thing that the HECM program remains strong. Looming is the second part of the Bermuda Triangle of Economic Uncertainty- the oil crisis. To understand why this will happen, it is important to know the following:
1. In the 70’s, the Nixon Administration, agreed militarily to protect the Persian Gulf countries in return for OPEC requiring that oil be purchased in dollars. These countries also agreed to purchase our treasuries and to keep the price of oil relatively low.
2. The invasion of Iraq changed the stakes as it was believed that the US was after Iraqi oil and wanted to break OPEC’s hold on this country
3. OPEC is not happy that it is accepting a declining currency as payment. This means less profits and higher inflation rates.
4. OPEC sees Asia as the future.
5. With the economic development of India & China, supply will not be able to keep up with demand.
This means that there will most likely be continued high oil prices and eventual shortages. Thank goodness that our seniors are a hardy group. If it seems that their funds just don’t have the purchasing power of yesterday, it is because of the baneful fiscal policies of the government.
The government has a vested interest in keeping the Consumer Price Index low. This represents the third part of the Bermuda Triangle of Economic Uncertainty. Therefore, wages that are pegged to increases in the CPI purposely do not increase as fast. Social Security benefits are also kept lower than they should be. Instead of using a fixed basket of goods with prevailing prices, the government uses a flexible basket of goods. Consequently items that are going up receive less weight, while goods that are decreasing in prices receive greater weight. This sleight of hand is a way the government keeps Social Security benefits and inflation reporting artificially low.
The upshot of all this is that the home remains the castle in every sense of the word for our seniors. A home covered with a reverse mortgage will protect our seniors from future financial storms that are definitely on the horizon.